If we look back to predictions in the past few months it can help build what could happen now. That is exactly what I did when making a June 2021 prediction. If we think about a typical cycle that naturally matures as the market transitions from early recovery to mid-cycle the pace will slow.
Economic activity will be followed by less forceful peaks. This will occur around this month as dynamic expectations would be difficult to predict after the first quarter. One main consideration is if there is a small downfall, that will not be the end of a cycle but instead a transition to a steady state for the economy.
We have continued the reopening of many things in and outside of the U.S. that has lead to employment gains that we expect to seeing more personal consumption. However, things do change and I do have a different prediction for the later summer months if big changes occur.
