Here we see smaller business going out and taken over by bigger corporations.
For making predictions we need to know that the stock market is a forward looking machine and that predictions outlook it typically for a year. However, right now that prediction is 3-6 months out.
I will be looking at VIX to see what the 30 day measurement of risk currently it is at 16% and that is high. Typically it is higher when there is threat of war or a recession so the lower the better.
Also it is known that different parts of the stock market rises depending on the party in office. Some examples of companies that may be more successful due to the part in office are:
Republicans- Construction, gas, and railroads
Democrats- Johnson & Johnson, Pharmaceuticals, recyclables
One major thing to consider for this summers prediction is the capital gains tax, a tax linked to the sale of an asset. Currently it is at 20% and has been that since Obama made it 20%. However that may rise to 46% and if this happens we may start to see people pull out of the market and a big sell off in the market.
Since 2010 "sell in may go away" has been a term that has went away because the Dow has gone from 9,000 points to 34,000 points
The market is flat and it changes one day to the next.
We also have to consider that production goes down in the summer and gas prices go up due to travel that takes place in the summer.
It is difficult to make predictions with the current state of the market so I had to make a brief prediction that may occur over several months and I will continue to watch it and add new post on realizations that I make.
